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Exam 3: Demand Forecasting

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Question 31

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Averaging forecasting techniques are useful for:

A) distinguishing between random and non-random variations
B) forecasting cyclical time series
C) smoothing out fluctuations in data
D) forecasting seasonal indexes
E) identifying variables in the demand

F) A) and C)
G) C) and E)

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Question 32

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In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing,the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of:

A) an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
B) an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value.
C) the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor.
D) the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
E) a moving average and a trend factor.

F) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

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Question 33

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Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (deseasonalizing)can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrolment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7 and .3?

Which of the following factors is generally not a consideration at the time of selecting an appropriate forecasting method to use?

The president of Northern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

11eab92b_c4ae_49e8_99e6_156d1f3aad6a What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

An advantage of "trend adjusted exponential smoothing" over the "linear trend equation" is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

Forecasts based on time series (historical)data are referred to as associative forecasts.

The president of Northern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha(1) = .05 and alpha(2) = 0.3,if the forecast for last year was 21,000,the forecast for two years ago was 19,000,and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments.Thus,he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments.He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

The forecast error is the difference between the actual value and the forecast value for a given period.

Given forecast errors of -5,-10,and +15,what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) ?

A manager uses this equation to predict demand: Yt = 20 + 4t.Over the past 8 periods,demand has been as follows.Are the results acceptable? Explain. 11eab92b_c4ad_ad9a_99e6_f1432499b6b7

The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha(1) = 0.3 and alpha(2) = 0.2,if the forecast for last year was 31,the forecast for two years ago was 43,and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -15?